XRP has taken the crypto community by storm with a stunning price surge, up to $2.09 at the time of writing, an increase of 2.59% from yesterday. This surge comes against a backdrop of 24-hour trading volume that has dropped 28.97% to $4.9 billion, which may suggest that the trading dynamics are shifting. Similarly, the market cap is down 2.71% to $122.28 billion, leaving questions over whether this movement is sustainable.
Source: Coinmarketcap
Is XRP on the verge of a breakout or a retreat?
On the daily timeframe, XRP is presently priced at $2.2889, with exponential moving averages at 20, 50, 100 and 200 days in the range of $1.9480 – $2.3377. Positioning in this range indicates a strong uptrend. The price recently also broke out of a descending triangle pattern, a bullish indication, targeting $3.500 on the chart.
However, the MACD indicator is showing a bearish crossover, with values at -0.0241, -0.0619 and -0.0860, which indicates short-term selling pressure. The price is still well above notable support at $1.9480, and if it remains above $2.3377, XRP is likely headed toward the $3 – $3.500 mark. On the other hand, if the price goes below $2.2885, we may see a correction that could fall down to $2.0995 or below.
Source: TradingView
Liquidation Heat: Are Traders Overleveraged?
Based on liquidation data, traders are definitely overleveraged since price movement and liquidation activity start seeing a large uptick. Short liquidations measured in red peaked out in late 2024, while in early 2025, long liquidations measured in green reached a hand-shaking 42.504 million XRP on January 9, 2025, in comparison. The long liquidations increased after the pricing peaked at $2.75, which likely means overleveraged bullish positions were forced out of the market.
The liquidated positions likely contributed to the recent price decline to $2.09, because liquidations by force contribute to additional sell pressure. The liquidation volume suggests a reasonably sized reset has occurred, since this type of liquidation removes weak hands from the market and conditions the market to eventually rally more sustainably, if buying interest returns again.
Source: Coinglass
In a recent post on X (Twitter), RLUSD has crossed the minting milestone of $100M, further strengthening Ripple Payments and giving XRP momentum in the stablecoin space. XRP reached $2.09 amid whale movement, providing an optimistic outlook for Ripple and its ecosystem.
Source: X
Conclusion: Will XRP Reach $3.50?
Overall, XRP’s price action and technical formation indicate a slightly bullish forecast. Following our observed bullish breakout above the $2 resistance and descending triangle setup, we look at the next bullish outlook of possibly $3.50. At the same time, the recent bearish MACD crossover and the higher number of liquidations suggest some volatility in the short term. As such, it will be important to follow our support level at $2.2885 – if it can hold support, it will probably validate the uptrend; if it breaks, we could look to extended lower corrections. Ultimately, whether XRP can create increasing buying volume or not will determine if this rally can mark new highs.
