After making a low on the year at 166.45, bitcoin rebounded to 315. After setting this price range, the cryptocurrency started to consolidate with lower volatility. In the 4H chart, we can see a smaller range between roughly 210 and 268. Within this range, we can see that price coiled further into a range between 236 and 249.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 2/26
(click to enlarge)
The action of the moving averages also reflect coiling as they clustered together around 237, with price action trading in the middle of the cluster. If we look at the RSI, we actually see a slight bullish momentum because it has tagged above 70 a couple of times, and is now holding above 40 other than a brief break.
Even price action is trying to hang on as it holds above the 200-period SMA.
There is not direction right now. Hwoever, a break from the 236-249 range should open up some short-term directional outlook. Above 250, there is the 268 resistance, and then the 300-315 high. This outlook strengthens, if price pulls back but is able to hold above the middle of the current range, which is around 242.
On the other hand, if price pushes below 235, and then a rebound is held below 242, then there is downside risk to 210. A break below that exposes the 166.45 low on the year, with risk of falling further due to the prevailing downtrend since 2014.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1H Chart 2/26
(click to enlarge)
In the 1H chart, we actually see a slight bearish bias as price holds under the cluster of SMAs. Note that the RSI is holding below 60, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum. A break above 242 would indeed take away this bias in the 1H chart. Otherwise, the pressure in the intra-day chart is towards 235-236.
